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The Ashes may offer a reason to cheer, but this series will also see the Aussie side celebrate a greater number of birthdays than Timezone in the 90s. Recent addition Jake Weatherald celebrated his thirty-first birthday a day prior to the squad was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Test in Perth. Beau Webster turns 32 just ahead of Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is over.

Ageing Team Fascination Grows

For a couple of years there has been growing curiosity with the average age of this side and particularly the bowling unit. It is unusual to have nearly all player near a Test team being above thirty, except for novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that older age was a problem: a Test squad boasting a four-man attack with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are deep into their careers.

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Perhaps what really highlighted the discussion is that the backup bowlers over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their 30s. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injury, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Transition Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have continued performing. Any team knows that having a group of same-generation players might mean a group of simultaneous retirements, but so far change has remained theoretical: a process that would indeed be coming round the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, change is here, imposed on this Australian squad in the span of a short period. The back injury to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would likely only miss the opening match, was the Cricket Australia view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring injury, the team balance undergoes a much more significant shift with two key bowlers absent rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the balance and control that allows Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a weapon of attack. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the composition of the team. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so effective in Test matches entering the attack after seven to eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Newcomer Faces Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A full stadium crowd, half of it English, for the first Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories portray him as relaxed. He could be brought onto the ground on a banana lounge and still be anxious.

Sign up to The Spin

It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is notable is how rapidly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what further injuries the first Test may bring. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and good to back up after Brisbane, given how complicated stress fractures can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of going down early in tournaments and a pattern of minor injuries turning into longer layoffs.

Outlook Uncertain

The latter part of the series may see the main four bowlers reunited and all going well. Or it might experience transition beginning much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is seemingly the next option and could be a great pink-ball Brisbane option, but beyond that with options unclear. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also injured and has not yet played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm put back on, and this format is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all a chance for the opposing side. You can sense that change approaching, rolling round the corner, and England ain’t seen the success since they can't recall when.