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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, although experts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks could take several months, political observers suggest that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.