How Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in Gaza But Faces Challenges With Putin Concerning Ukraine
Reports of an impending American-Russian leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he intended to meet Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
- Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky departs White House without results
The frequently changing summit is another development in Trump's efforts to broker an conclusion to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"We have to get Russia resolved," he declared.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a agreement was Israel's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president gained from a long record of supporting Israel dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The US president, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has warned to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - then to retreat in the wake of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.
The president often boasts about his ability to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the war any closer to a peaceful end.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Putin agreed to a summit in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that the president would approve on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards put on hold.
Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then touted the potential meeting in Hungary.
The next day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.
Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.
So, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – even land Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since discarded that pledge, saying that concluding the war is proving harder than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when both parties desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.